Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Miserable New York Film Festival

According to A.O. Scott of the New York Times, the New York Film Festival is a miserable place to be this year. That is, of course, unless you enjoy, as Scott puts it, "sadism, guilt, violence and despair, a panorama of pessimism notable for its exhausting rigor and relentless consistency." See complete 10/6/09 article at nytimes-wallowinginmisery.

This is no surprise for followers of Socionomics. The basic premise is that populations have a mass psychology. They herd and move from mass optimism to mass pessimism and back again in general unison. It is posited that the financial markets record this objectively with the buying and selling of financial wares. That is, the financial markets are determined by social mood. Not that social mood is determined by the financial markets.

The theory can be put to practical use:  if one can gauge what the herd is doing, one can plan what to do next in relation to it.  For example, my daughter is reading "Twilight," novel series by Stephenie Meyer.  When she told me it is about vampires, I said, "This author will do very well if she continues to write along this theme," based on my belief that humankind has entered a phase of mass pessimism. In my opinion, there is some validity to the mass psychology argument and I have seen, first hand, its predictive value in the stock market. For more on this see Elliott Wave International
The New York Film Festival should do very well.

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